GREENHOUSE GASES "DO WARM OCEANS"

[Anonymous]

Greenhouse gases ‘do warm oceans
Scientists say they
have “compelling” evidence that ocean warming over the past 40 years can be
linked to the industrial release of carbon dioxide.

US Researchers compared the rise in ocean temperatures with predictions from
climate models And found human activity was the most likely cause.

In coming decades, the warming will have a dramatic impact on regional water
supplies, they predict.

Details of the study were released at a major science meeting in Washington
DC.

The conference is the annual gathering of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science (AAAS).

‘High confidence’

“This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is
happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past and
likely future evolution,” said lead author Tim Barnett, of the climate research
division at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California.

“If you take this data and combine it with a decade of earlier results, the
debate about whether or not there is a global warming signal here and now is
over at least for rational people.”

Unless we know what we’re dealing with, I think it’s going to be pretty hard to fix it

The team fed different scenarios into computer simulations to try
to reproduce the observed rise in ocean temperatures over the last 40 years.

They used several scenarios to try to explain the oceanic observations,
including natural climate variability, solar radiation and volcanic emissions,
but all fell short.

“What absolutely nailed it was greenhouse warming,” said Dr Barnett.

This model reproduced the observed temperature changes in the oceans with a
statistical confidence of 95%, conclusive proof – say the researchers – that
global warming is being caused by human activities.

‘Political action’

Regional water supplies will be dramatically affected by climate change in
the decades immediately ahead, say the team.

The western US is already experiencing water shortages and research suggests
that the region could face a water crisis within 20 years.

In the South American Andes and western China, millions of people could be
left without adequate water during the summer due to accelerated melting of
glaciers.

“If the snow pack melts sooner, and if societies don’t have the ability catch
all of that water, they’re going to end up with water shortages in the summer,”
Dr Barnett explained.

According to the Scripps researcher, political leadership was now needed to
avert a global disaster.

“Hopefully we can get the US cranked around in that direction. I think the
first thing to do is figure out the global warming-related problems we have
ahead of us around the world.

“Unless we know what we’re dealing with, I think it’s going to be pretty hard
to fix it.”

[Author]

February 20, 2005 at 9:18 AM