PC SALES BODES WELL FOR REST OF YEAR

Date: Friday April 23, 2004 10:39:00 am

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<DIV>PC sales bode well for rest of year</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) — A strong bout of PC buying by corporations in the first quarter has analysts excited about prospects for the rest of the year</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The recovery is stronger than we predicted,” said Roger Kay, vice president with research firm IDC, adding that consumers also purchased above what was expected during the previous three months.</DIV>
Computer shipments accelerated 16.5 percent to 41.2 million units in the first quarter from the same period last year, according to a report authored by Kay and colleague Loren Loverde. Dell benefited the most, IDC said, recapturing the lead it had lost to Hewlett-Packard in the fourth quarter. 
Comments in the past week from computer-chip manufacturers Intel and Advanced Micro Devices also indicate a growing optimism for corporate purchases of information technology this year. 
Investors wil get additional data points in coming weeks when Fujitsu and Gateway report financial results at the end of April and Hewlett-Packard and Dell report financial results in mid-May. 
The first-quarter figures will likely lead IDC to boost its full-year predictions for the PC market, Kay said, adding that strong growth should continue into 2005.
Kay and Loverde expected growth of 13.5 percent and attributed the difference to corporate purchasing in the U.S. and Europe. PCs bought by corporations make up about three-fifths to two-thirds of all PC sales.
Gartner, another research firm, announced first-quarter shipment growth of 13.4 percent to 45.3 million units, slightly ahead of an earlier prediction of 13.3 percent. Gartner also cited spending by corporations.
Analyst David Wong with A.G. Edwards said the latest research further solidifies the view that corporations are spending money again. “We believe PC growth trends will accelerate from this point as the corporate refresh cycle picks up strength,” he wrote in a research note on Friday.
IDC said Dell garnered 18.6 percent of the market with shipment growth of 28 percent to 7.7 million units. That surpassed H-P’s growth of 15.8 percent to 6.4 million units for 15.6 percent of the market. IBM, Fujitsu/Fujitsu-Siemens, and Acer rounded out the rest of the top five. 
While Kay noted that Dell’s market share lead on H-P is at its widest point since H-P merged with Compaq in 2002, he downplayed its importance due to inventory corrections at H-P and seasonality.
”I’m not ready to declare Dell the definitive winner yet,” Kay said. “It’s wider than usual, but this doesn’t imply that Dell is pulling away.”
A.G. Edward’s Wong expects Dell to gain one to two percentage points of market share per year for the “indefinite future.”
As for other surprises in first-quarter numbers, Kay cited Acer’s shipments figures, which moved it past Toshiba. 
He also noted Gateway’s market share continues to decline, but that eMachines continues to do quite well. Gateway closed its $235 million purchase of eMachines during the first quarter; IDC will combine the two companies’ shipment figures from now on.
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April 23, 2004 at 10:39 AM

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