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Financial Services and Technology Likely to Improve in 2004
Professionals in the turnaround management and corporate renewal industry anticipate a different landscape in the restructuring scene as a result of improved economic conditions and more liquidity in the capital market overall in 2004. These two factors, along with loosening of credit among lenders, were named most frequently by respondents to a recent Turnaround Management Association (TMA) Trend Watch poll asked to identify the anticipated different dynamics in 2004 compared to last year. Financial services and technology were named by one-third of the respondents and topped the list of industries expected to improve during 2004. One out of five respondents believe the aerospace/defense and pharmaceutical industries will improve their performance in the coming year.
TMA Trend Watch respondents were less optimistic for manufacturing, airlines and automotive industries, which came in as the top three most likely to experience the greatest financial and/or operations difficulties in 2004. Telecommunications slipped to fourth place after being number two in last year’s poll as the pick for most distressed industries in the year ahead.
When asked to pick the industries that suffered the most during 2003, about two-thirds named airlines, followed by manufacturing (43 percent) and telecommunications (29 percent).
Retail was number two on the list of industries predicted in the 2002 Trend Watch poll to experience the most operational/financial difficulties in 2003 (30 percent of respondents). However, when 2003 respondents answered the question about the most troubled industries this year, retail slipped to fifth position, named by only 15 percent of the respondents.
More than half the respondents (57 percent) still saw economic conditions as a key obstacle to underperforming companies ahead, with one-third naming changes in competition and too much debt holding back companies from recovery during 2004
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