HP Will Split In Two, And 9 More Calls On Tech Co's In 2013

Date: Thursday December 13, 2012 08:37:40 am

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HP Will Split In Two, And 9 More Calls On Tech Co’s In 2013
Guest post written by Roman Stanek<a href=”http://roman.stanek.org/”> 
Roman Stanek</a> is CEO and founder of <a href=”http://www.gooddata.com/”>GoodData</a>, a <a href=”http://www.forbes.com/places/ca/san-francisco/”>San Francisco</a>-based provider of business intelligence software.
I’m betting that 2013 is going to be the year of the cloud. That’s going to be disruptive to many players in the IT business; the trend will cause some tech giants to stumble and fall. It also will trigger unheard of valuations for tiny companies that so far you’ve never heard of before. And not least, the cloud also will play a role in reviving the world economy.
All of which leads to my list of 10 predictions for the technology business for 2013, in no particular order:
<ol>
<li>One big company will disappear. No, I’m not talking about <a href=”http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=hpq”>Hewlett-Packard</a> (You can see that prediction below.) But it could be <a href=”http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=znga”>Zynga</a>, <a href=”http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=dell”>Dell</a>, <a href=”http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=bby”>Best Buy</a> or <a href=”http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=nok”>Nokia</a>, as each struggles to find new sources of revenue in a fad-obsessed, social-saturated world. Much of these companies’ problems can be attributed to the scale and infrastructure of cloud computing, which dramatically lowers the barrier for startups to compete. <a href=”http://www.forbes.com/companies/dell/”>Dell</a> and <a href=”http://www.forbes.com/companies/nokia/”>Nokia</a> have unique issues to contend with. Dell, of course, is trying to find a viable new business model in the wake of the post-PC revolution. And in a sign that the mobile market won’t support last-decade innovations, Nokia has desperately hitched its future on <a href=”http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=msft”>Microsoft’</a>s Windows 8 mobile operating system — a sign of desperation if ever there was one.</li>
<li>A startup with fewer than five employees will be bought for more than $1 billion. <a href=”http://www.forbes.com/companies/facebook/”>Facebook</a>’s purchase of <a href=”http://www.instagram.com”>Instagram</a> shows that a company’s value is less and less connected to the number of employees. I believe (almost) all credit is due to cloud computing and <a href=”http://www.amazon.com”>Amazon</a>’s Web Services, which enables a handful of people to quickly build a high-value cloud, mobile and social company without first having to build out a big infrastructure. I think of it as standing on the shoulders of giants. We’ll have to wait to see if such a valuable can be defensible.</li>
<li>HP will be broken up into two pieces. This once-great company has had too many body blows (Mark Hurd’s purchase of EDS to chase on-premise consulting gigs, Hurd’s ouster, Leo Apotheker’s stint as CEO, Apotheker’s acquisition of Autonomy, Autonomy’s allegedly creative bookkeeping) to remain in one piece. I believe it will be broken into two parts, with the consumer half going to an OEM in Asia, and the enterprise side bought by a big Indian outsourcer.</li>
<li>Twitter will become a real, global, organized media company. Twitter has been slowly transforming itself from a geek tool into a 21st century media company. Now that they’ve killed off their middlemen — the better to control both the user and advertising experience — I believe this will be the year Twitter delivers on its strategy and vision to become the company of 2013.</li>
<li><a href=”http://www.forbes.com/companies/apple/”>Apple</a> will lose its ecosystem edge, resulting in a decline in mobile apps and devices. In its quest for consistent look-and-feel and high quality, Apple has always maintained tight control over its third-party developers. <a href=”http://www.google.com”>Google</a> has clearly taken a different approach with the Android market — a strategy that has won big fans in the battle of the ecosystem. I believe Apple has lost that battle. The only question is how low will it fall.</li>
<li>The VC community will conclude that the enterprise market is too hard, and will focus on consumer — again. I look at it this way: You go back to your ex-girlfriend, and two weeks into the relationship you realize there’s a reason you broke up in the first place. The problem with the enterprise market is it’s as risky as the consumer space, but with longer cycles and higher investments. I personally don’t believe the majority of VCs have the patience for the enterprise.</li>
<li>Clean-enough energy will become the next gold mine. The U.S. will become one of the world’s biggest energy producers. OK, I may be a little ahead of myself on this one, but I firmly believe we will go from being the biggest buyer to the biggest producer of energy in a few years. Obviously, that will change U.S. economics. It also opens up huge opportunities for any company participating in energy that’s cheap enough and clean enough. (Notice my emphasis on “enough.” It doesn’t have to be “clean energy” per se, for people to make a ton of money.) Is it risky? You bet. As <a href=”http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/”>Nassim Taleb</a> writes in “<a href=”http://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Gain-Disorder/dp/1400067820″>Antifragile</a>,” people only make money by investing in things that become more complicated. If they’re already working on next year’s problem, it’s too safe.</li>
<li>The U.S. economy will once again become the engine of global growth. We can blame or thank Big Data, but U.S. companies are more productive — with the result that the U.S. economy is slowly but finally coming back. More important, I expect that growth will offset whatever happens in Europe.</li>
<li>Europe will become less relevant to the global economy. I don’t believe the euro will collapse, but I do believe people will no longer care about it. Instead, I see the rise of new economic powerhouses such as Brazil and Turkey (not China and not India).</li>
<li>The cost of office real-estate in San Francisco could hit $100 a square foot. Enough said on this one, I’m afraid — although I’m hoping this one doesn’t come true.</li>
</ol>
Related on Forbes:
 
<h1>Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends For 2013</h1>
<div class=”image_box”> <a href=”http://www.forbes.com/pictures/efei45klgj/mobile-applications-html-5/”> </a> Photo credit should read PATRICK HERTZOG/AFP/GettyImages <a href=”http://www.forbes.com/pictures/efei45klgj/mobile-device-battles/” class=”main_link”><img class=”main” src=”http://specials-images.forbes.com/imageserve/0ctI8Py5b8dIP/0x600.jpg?fit=scale&background=000000″ alt=”Mobile Device Battles” /></a></div>
<h2>Mobile Device Battles 
In 2013, mobile devices will pass PCs to be most common Web access tools. By 2015, over 80% of handsets in mature markets will be smart phones</h2>
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December 13, 2012 at 8:37 AM

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