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AnonymousInactive2007 to be ‘warmest on record’
The
world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007, the
UK’s Met Office says.An extended warming period, resulting from an El
Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean, will probably push up global
temperatures, experts forecast.They say there is a 60% chance that the
average surface temperature will match or exceed the current record
from 1998.The scientists also revealed that 2006 saw the highest
average temperature in the UK since records began in 1914.The global
surface temperature is projected to be 0.54C (0.97F) above the
long-term average of 14C (57F), beating the current record of 0.52C
(0.94F), which was set in 1998.The annual projection was compiled by
the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre, in conjunction with the University
of East Anglia.El Nino effect
Chris
Folland, head of the Hadley Centre’s climate variability research, said
the forecast was primarily based on two factors.The first was
greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, he said.”This is a
statistical method; it is a number that represents the heating of the
atmosphere.”Greenhouse gases cause heating, while aerosols cause
cooling,” Professor Folland told BBC News.”The other factor which
allows us to make a forecast that whether one year is significantly
different from the next is the effect of the El Nino.”El Nino events
are marked by the arrival of unusually warm waters off the
north-western coast of South America, and are described as the largest
influence on the year-to-year variability of the Earth’s climate.This
year’s potential to be a record breaker is linked to a moderate
strength El Nino already established in the Pacific Ocean.The World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that it was expected to continue
into the first quarter of this year, which would have a knock-on
effect.”There is a big lag between the El Nino and the warming of
global temperatures – it takes about four months or perhaps a bit
longer,” Professor Folland explained.”We have two methods of
forecasting the effect of the El Nino. One is a statistical method
based on two patterns of sea surface temperatures in the El Nino
region, and the other is a complex mathematical model.”He said that the
forecast was then fine-tuned by looking back over data from the
previous 50 years.”We have actually run this forecast three times,
updating it every month… and it is completely stable.”The 60%
probability that 2007 would set a new record meant that it “was more
likely than not”, he concluded.The Hadley Centre has been issuing the
annual forecast for the past seven years and says it has just a 0.06C
margin of error.In December, the WMO released provisional data on the
global average surface temperature for 2006. It estimated that last
year was 0.42C (0.75F) above the 1961-1990 average, making it the sixth
warmest on record.However, the UK experienced the warmest year on
record in 2006, according to Met Office figures released alongside the
global forecast.The meteorologists said the mean temperature for the
year was 9.7C (49.5F), 1.1C (2F) above the long-term average, based on
the period between 1971-2000. -
AuthorJanuary 4, 2007 at 12:37 PM
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