Trump’s Tariffs Takes a Toll: China’s Packaging and Printing Paper Markets Decline.

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China’s packaging and printing paper markets are experiencing a sharp downturn, driven in part by the ongoing impact of tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war. As trade tensions continue to cast a long shadow over global commerce, the once-robust Chinese paper sector is showing signs of strain, particularly in exports tied to U.S. demand.

Export Challenges Deepen
In April 2025, Chinese exports to the United States fell by a significant 21% in U.S. dollar terms. This drop is a direct consequence of the tariff barriers that remain in place following the policies initiated by former President Donald Trump. These tariffs, intended to pressure China into trade concessions, have disrupted supply chains and curbed demand for Chinese goods—including packaging and printing paper products.

Although China managed to post an 8% overall increase in exports—buoyed by stronger trade with Southeast Asia and Europe—the shift hasn’t been enough to offset the drop in orders from its key market, the United States. The export order index declined to 44.7, well below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, underscoring persistent trade headwinds. China’s overall manufacturing health also slipped, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipping below 50.

Falling Demand and Prices
China’s paper industry, particularly the segments producing coated and uncoated woodfree papers, has been hit hard by weakening demand. Normally, April marks a period of slower activity, but this year’s figures point to an even more pronounced slowdown.

In the packaging paper market, volumes remained underwhelming as orders from overseas clients—especially U.S.-based importers—continued to lag. As a result, domestic suppliers have faced excess inventories and have been forced to lower prices. Compounding the problem is the concurrent decline in pulp prices, which has squeezed margins across the industry.

Economic Stimulus Still on the Horizon
The Chinese government has rolled out a series of stimulus measures to shore up economic growth, including infrastructure investment and monetary easing. However, the positive effects of these policies have yet to filter through to the paper and packaging sectors. Analysts caution that while these efforts may eventually provide some relief, the immediate outlook remains subdued.

Outlook: Uncertain Recovery
The sustained pressure from U.S. tariffs, alongside broader global economic uncertainties, continues to reshape China’s manufacturing and export landscape. For the paper industry, the combined challenges of soft demand, falling prices, and trade friction suggest a longer path to recovery.

Unless significant policy shifts or trade negotiations bring relief, China’s packaging and printing paper markets are likely to remain under stress, marking yet another sector feeling the weight of the global trade realignment initiated in the Trump era.

[Author]

June 10, 2025 at 12:35 PM